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疫情影响节后客流恢复,航司短期业绩继续承压。若疫情得控,国内大循环下盈利仍将可期。香港疫情形势或催化国际放开预期回归理性,建议关注逆向时机。 1、民航市场数据跟踪:春运客流恢复有限,节后客流同比回落。 根据交通部统计,春运前38天(1月17日-2月23日)全国旅客发送量(包含航空、铁路、公路、水路)同比增长23%,约为2019年春运同期35%。 其中,航空客流春运前38天同比增长15%,为2019年54%,恢复程度高于整体,略低于铁路客流61%的恢复程度。 元宵节前航空客流同比2021年春运增长33%,而元宵节后同比增速回落至-14%,应源于重大活动与国内疫情影响。 2022年1月三大航国内客座率为60%,较2021年1-2月下降3个百分点,明显低于2019年1-2月的83%。春运前半段票价坚挺,节后票价小幅回落。考虑春节错位影响,建议观察1-2月合计同比增速作为趋势参考。 2、航空:短期业绩仍将承压,大循环下盈利可期。 春运航空客流恢复有限,航司机队周转偏低,且油价同比上升,预计短期业绩继续承压。 近期国内疫情仍局部散发,影响节后客流恢复。考虑国内出行心理建设完成,待疫情得控,预计客流将较快恢复,我们维持国内大循环下航司仍有望恢复一定盈利能力的乐观预期。国内市场盈利能力被显著低估,其潜在净利率或超10%,过剩运力承接消化能力将超预期。若国内大循环下航司超预期恢复盈利,将有望催化长期乐观预期。 3、机场:新航季国际客班或有所恢复,国际放开仍将缓慢。 中国民航仍执行“五个一”国际客班管控措施,国际客流仍维持极低水平,显著慢于欧美国际客流近六成的恢复程度。1月首都、浦东及白云等机场的国际航线客流仅为2019年2%。 考虑2021冬航季国际客班缩减两成,预计2022年夏航季国际客班计划或将有所恢复。2022年国际放开仍将缓慢,预计机场公司经营短期将继续承压。 长期而言,机场免税渠道价值仍然存在,需要注意免税长期格局变化及相关影响,以及大型机场扩建风险。 4、投资策略:香港疫情形势或催化国际放开预期回归理性,建议关注逆向时机。 长期看中国航空业长期供需向好。需求端,疫情未改需求结构与长期增长动能。 供给端,中国航空业拥有周期行业最难得的长期供给瓶颈,“十四五”机队与时刻匹配度提升,叠加票价市场化,航网优秀的航司长期盈利将超预期上行。 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